Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar on January 9, released his office’s Biennial Revenue Estimate (BRE) ahead of the 88th Legislature that convened January 10.
The BRE predicts a record $188.2 billion in revenue for the next biennium (2024-2025) and a $32.7 billion surplus from the 2022-2023 biennium. The $188.2 billion in revenue available for general-purpose spending during the 2024-2025 biennium is a 26.3% increase from the previous biennium.
Of the total, $10.2 billion from 2024-2025 oil and natural gas taxes must be reserved and transferred to the Economic Stabilization Fund (the state's Rainy Day Fund) and the State Highway Fund. Another $155 million must also be used to cover a shortfall in the Texas Guaranteed Tuition Plan, known as the Texas Tomorrow Fund. Absent any legislative appropriations, the Rainy Day Fund balance is expected to total a record $27.1 billion at the end of the 2024-25 biennium.
Hegar projected the state will have $342.3 billion of available “all funds” revenue in the next biennium. This includes approximately $108.4 billion in federal receipts, along with $68 billion in other income and revenues dedicated for specific purposes and therefore unavailable for generalpurpose spending.
Sales tax collections are the state’s largest source of general revenue-related funds. Revenue is predicted to reach $87.9 billion in 2024-2025. The largest source of general fund revenue would come from sales taxes collected from oil production, projected to generate $13.3 billion. Motor vehiclerelated taxes, including sales, rental and manufactured housing taxes, are expected to generate the next highest amount of $12.7 billion. Franchise tax collections are projected to generate $8.8 billion, and natural gas tax collections are predicted to reach $8.6 billion.
According to the comptroller’s office, the final ending balance for the 2024-25 biennium, and beginning balance for the next, will be determined by what budget actions the 88th Legislature takes and by actual revenue collections during the remainder of the fiscal year.