By Patrick McCullough, Senior Meteorologist NWS San Angelo, Texas
As anyone who has lived or worked around the Hill County of Texas knows, the weather across the area can change rapidly from day to day. This is especially true in the spring, when all four seasons can seemingly pay a visit on any given day. San Saba County and the City of San Saba are no exception, which makes it difficult to plan for when it comes to the upcoming solar eclipse on April 8th. Although pinpointing the forecast will get easier as we get closer to the day of the eclipse, we can look back at previous years to get a feel for what the weather may or may not be for that day.
Cloud cover: The eclipse path crosses from Mexico north across Texas and stretches northeast into the Great Lakes region. But a look at cloud cover through the years on April 8th shows that the most likely area to see clear skies occurs from Mexico into Central Texas, with the likelihood for cloud cover increasing rapidly from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes.
Temperatures: Temperatures can vary wildly across the area in the month of April, with temperatures on April 8th ranging from 29 degrees for a morning low as observed in 2007, to an afternoon high of 90 degrees on April 8th 2006. The average high and low temperatures are somewhere in between with an average low of 48 degrees and an average high of 74 degrees. Warm to hot temperatures with highs climbing above the 90-degree mark are not rare and occur about 10% of the time.
San Saba Climatology for April 8th:
Average Low: 47.5
Coldest Low: 29 April 8th 2007
Warmest Low: 66 April 8th 2020
Average High: 74.2
Hottest High: 90 April 8th 2006
Coldest High: 33 April 8th 2007
Precipitation: Springtime in Texas can always be an adventure, and the climatology around the date of the eclipse reflects this. On April 7th and 8th of 2007, a winter storm produced significant amounts of ice and snow across portions of San Saba County including the City of San Saba. On the opposite side, severe thunderstorms producing quarter size hail (1.00 inch) occurred as recently as 2021. With what may be a large number of people camping outside for the eclipse, lightning is a major weather safety concern. The climatology shows about a 16% chance of lightning for April 8th, but when considering the period from April 5th-April 10th when people may be camping outdoors, the chance for lightning at some point during that period increases to near 70%!
When it rains, it can really rain across the area. A look through the weather records show that it rains on about 10% of the days around the date of the eclipse. The heaviest rain fell in 2005 on April 6th when 1.64 inches of rain was recorded.
Weather Safety Concerns: As already mentioned, the possibility of lightning and severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are always a concern. These storms can also produce very heavy rainfall, enough to cause swiftly flowing flood waters of creeks and streams across the area. Strong winds following cold fronts that move through the region can easily produce 40 to 50 mph winds. These winds would be capable of blowing over tents and perhaps even campers that may not be anchored to withstand these winds. Finally, given the temperature extremes possible from below freezing and the chance of ice to hot afternoon temperatures near 90 degrees, we cannot forget to think about things such as hypothermia and heat exhaustion as well as dehydration.
The best way to remain safe is to have multiple ways of receiving hazardous weather watches and warnings from the National Weather Service. NOAA Weather Radio, local radio and tv stations, and weather alerts on your cell phone and mobile devices are several ways to get these alerts.
The local National Weather Service office here in San Angelo, will be able to provide a better idea of the weather expected for the day of the eclipse about 10 to 14 days in advance, although that outlook will be more about trends and general patterns. More specific forecasts will be available seven days in advance with the accuracy and timing becoming more certain as we approach April 8th.